Possible scenario
Allied Deterrence Response
15% Chance
The Philippines may ask the United States, Japan, or Australia to make deterrence more visible through statements, joint patrols, or exercises. This reduces the chance of an isolated Philippine setback but raises the visibility of great-power competition.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Technology -0.3%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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