Possible scenario
Red Sea Escalates
20% Chance
The conference is overtaken by events if the Houthis interpret U.S. scrutiny as an opportunity to intensify Red Sea attacks. A renewed shipping threat would matter more to short-term markets than the conference itself, lifting oil and volatility modestly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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