Possible scenario
Ukraine Gains Ground
25% Chance
The reported casualty rate reflects real strain in Russian assault formations, allowing Ukraine to exploit weak points with drones, artillery and mechanized raids. Gains are most plausible around Lyman, Svatove or other sectors where Russian units have recently suffered concentrated losses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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