Possible scenario
Russia Escalates Response
20% Chance
Moscow reacts to battlefield losses by increasing missile, drone and glide-bomb attacks or by expanding mobilization. The most likely escalation remains conventional and contained, but it would raise near-term geopolitical risk and support defense equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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