Possible scenario
Attritional Stalemate Continues
45% Chance
Russia continues offensive operations despite very high reported casualties, accepting manpower losses to sustain pressure in Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk. Ukraine holds most lines with Western artillery, drones and air-defense support, but neither side achieves a decisive operational breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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