Possible scenario
Sustained Refinery Pressure
40% Chance
Ukraine keeps targeting Russian refineries, storage sites, and pipeline-connected fuel infrastructure because the campaign is visibly damaging Russia's war economy. Moscow absorbs the shock through export curbs, rationing, and emergency repairs, but refined-product shortages remain politically and economically costly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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