Possible scenario
Talks Deteriorate
15% Chance
The site-visit proposal breaks down over U.S. allegations about nuclear testing activity and Chinese objections to asymmetrical transparency demands. This would be a modest geopolitical risk-off event rather than a crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.