Possible scenario
Symbolic Stalemate Persists
30% Chance
The proposal keeps the dialogue alive but stalls over definitions of reciprocity, facility selection, and data-sharing. This outcome is plausible because China has historically resisted transparency measures that could expose force structure details.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.