Possible scenario
Gridlock Returns
20% Chance
Moody's affirmation buys time but does not resolve France's parliamentary impasse. If opposition parties block or dilute the budget, investors refocus on debt sustainability and the risk of another rating review.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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