Possible scenario
Budget Deal Advances
25% Chance
The French government uses the Moody's reprieve to push lawmakers toward a compromise on deficit reduction. Markets see the deal as imperfect but sufficient to delay further rating action and cap the near-term rise in yields.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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