Possible scenario
Managed Bypass Expansion
43% Chance
Oman's added storage at Duqm becomes part of a broader Saudi-UAE-Oman workaround that reduces near-term dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. The workaround does not fully replace Hormuz flows, but it gives traders and insurers more confidence that some Gulf crude can keep moving.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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