Possible scenario
Sanctions Grind Tightens
22% Chance
The U.S. channels Trump's threat into sanctions enforcement, U.N. penalties, and interdiction of Iranian oil networks rather than immediate military action. Iran remains defiant, but the next step is economic pressure and inspections diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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