Possible scenario
Limited Military Escalation
27% Chance
Washington and Jerusalem prepare for another coercive round if Iran rejects demands. The most likely hard-way path is a bounded strike campaign against missile, drone, and nuclear-support facilities rather than a full-scale war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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