Possible scenario
Coercive Diplomacy Resumes
38% Chance
Trump's warning functions mainly as leverage after Israeli strikes and renewed U.S. pressure. Tehran, facing degraded nuclear and missile infrastructure, tests whether limited concessions can stop additional U.S., Israeli, and U.N. action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Consumer Services +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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