Possible scenario
GOP Triage Works
25% Chance
Republican super PACs successfully sacrifice low-probability incumbents to defend a smaller, more winnable map. The GOP loses seats but prevents a clean Democratic wave, leaving House control close into election night.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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