Possible scenario
Donor Split Deepens
20% Chance
The decision to abandon incumbents triggers recriminations among the Congressional Leadership Fund, NRCC strategists, and candidate campaigns. Fundraising and message discipline weaken in several marginal races, but late donor intervention could still soften the damage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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