Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
45% Chance
The abandonment of the first Republican incumbents becomes an early sign of broader GOP triage. Democratic candidates, aided by House Majority PAC and the DCCC, convert Republican spending gaps into a clear pickup environment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.