Possible scenario
Insider Case Contained
42% Chance
UAE investigators conclude the incident was an insider terrorism case tied to the co-pilot, with no evidence of an operational cell or airport-security conspiracy. The General Civil Aviation Authority and Flydubai focus on cockpit procedures, crew vetting, and how the crash axe was accessed during the descent.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.