Possible scenario
Republican Clark Breakthrough
32% Chance
Republicans continue to close the Clark County gap, validating signs that their mail-vote operation has materially improved since 2024. If Democrats cannot rebuild an early in-person edge, Nevada's statewide electorate tilts more favorable to the GOP before Election Day.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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