Possible scenario
Managed State Support
38% Chance
Beijing leans on state funds, pension vehicles, insurers and brokerages to slow forced selling without announcing a sweeping macro package. The most likely near-term path is stabilization by administrative support, because authorities have already used selling limits, buybacks and state-fund purchases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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