Possible scenario
Forceful Stimulus Pivot
20% Chance
The bear market forces Beijing to move beyond market-support tools toward fiscal stimulus, housing relief and stronger monetary easing. A larger package would be consistent with authorities' desire to prevent equity losses from worsening the household confidence slump.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.