Possible scenario
Deeper Bear Leg
32% Chance
Investors conclude that trading limits and buybacks cannot offset weak household demand, property stress and deteriorating earnings expectations. The selloff extends because previous stimulus and rate cuts failed to revive consumption or confidence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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