Possible scenario
Referendum Path Reopens
27% Chance
The PQ interprets its victory as a mandate to revive the sovereignty file despite lacking a majority. The key uncertainty is whether it creates a formal referendum track or limits itself to consultation to avoid losing confidence votes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Industrials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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