Possible scenario
Managed Minority Rule
38% Chance
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon forms a Parti Québécois minority government but governs cautiously because opposition parties can defeat confidence votes. The PQ prioritizes language, immigration, housing and affordability while delaying any binding sovereignty timetable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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