Possible scenario
U.S.-Led Suppression
30% Chance
Washington responds to attacks on escorted vessels by moving from convoy defense to offensive suppression of IRGC coastal missile, drone, and radar assets. The market reaction depends on whether the action is seen as restoring transit security or opening a broader U.S.-Iran conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.