Possible scenario
Negotiated Maritime Pause
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China press both sides toward a temporary stand-down to restore energy flows. Tehran may accept limited concessions on inspections, sanctions messaging, or deconfliction procedures while maintaining political claims over Gulf transits.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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