Expanded Maritime Coercion

Iran extends its threat posture from the Strait of Hormuz to the wider Gulf, targeting vessels tied to U.S., U.K., Israeli, or Gulf coalition logistics while avoiding a declared war. This is the most likely path because the IRGC has already struck tankers and U.S.-escorted traffic but may still try to calibrate escalation below the threshold of a full U.S. air campaign.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.