Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
28% Chance
Moscow responds to the destruction of Proton with high-visibility retaliation intended to restore deterrence. The most likely form is another missile-and-drone barrage against Ukraine's grid or logistics nodes, with lower-probability spillover risks near NATO territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
- LMT+1.1%
- RTX+1.0%
- CRWD+0.1%
- PANW+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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