Possible scenario
Putin Declines
20% Chance
Moscow avoids the legal and security complications of Putin traveling to the United States while blaming Washington for politicizing the summit. This outcome lets both sides avoid a direct confrontation over the ICC warrant.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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