Possible scenario
Invite Mostly Holds
38% Chance
The White House resists the 14 senators' demand and argues that the G20 should remain a leader-level forum even for adversaries. Trump frames Putin's attendance as an opportunity for Ukraine diplomacy while trying to limit legal and political fallout from the ICC warrant.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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