Possible scenario
Invitation Reversed
27% Chance
Additional Republicans join the senators' call, making the invitation politically costly for the White House. Trump reverses course or reframes the move as leverage over Moscow on Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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