Possible scenario
Narrow Fraud Prosecution
45% Chance
Romanian prosecutors keep the case focused on alleged fraud rather than reopening the broader 2024 election-interference controversy. Georgescu remains a symbolic figure for nationalist voters, but the legal process absorbs his attention and limits his ability to organize nationally.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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