Possible scenario
De Facto Moderation
25% Chance
Even after Trump denies a policy shift, field offices interpret the confusion as a signal to reduce legally vulnerable noncriminal arrests. The administration keeps tough rhetoric but enforcement temporarily tilts back toward criminal-priority cases.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- GEO-2.9%
- CXW-2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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