Direct U.S. Escalation

A strike kills or wounds Americans at a Gulf base, embassy-linked facility or aircraft hub, forcing Washington into direct military retaliation against IRGC assets. This is less likely than contained attacks because Tehran usually calibrates to avoid an uncontrollable U.S. response, but the risk is elevated by the explicit threat to Americans.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.