Possible scenario
Politics Slows Execution
15% Chance
Domestic political constraints in India or the United States delay some implementing steps even after the first phase is finalized. This scenario reflects the fact that the deal followed a recent impasse and likely contains compromises vulnerable to lobbying pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Business Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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