Possible scenario
Implementation Stays On Track
45% Chance
The first phase is implemented largely as announced, with both governments prioritizing a visible win after the October impasse. The most likely near-term outcome is limited tariff relief, streamlined customs procedures, and a timetable for a second-phase negotiation rather than a sweeping comprehensive pact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.6%
- Healthcare +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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