Possible scenario
Broader Links Found
15% Chance
Investigators uncover communications or logistical contacts that complicate the lone-attacker thesis. This would not automatically imply state sponsorship, but it would raise aviation-security and regional-risk premia for a short period.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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