Gulf Restart Slows

A slower restart of offshore platforms, ports, and pipelines would make the 4 million-barrel exchange look insufficient relative to the initial 1.28 million bpd shut-in. The result would be a modest crude-price risk premium, partly offset by weaker refinery margins for plants facing disrupted logistics.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.